Bayes' Theorem is a fundamental rule in probability theory
that describes how to update the probability of a hypothesis
as more evidence or information becomes available. It provides a mathematical
connection between a prior belief and observed data, producing an
updated posterior belief.
In simple terms, Bayes' theorem gives us a rigorous mathematical framework
for learning from evidence.
Imagine that a patient is tested for a rare disease. Suppose the disease
affects 1 in 10,000 people, the test has 99% sensitivity,
and 99% specificity.
What is the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease?
It is tempting to answer "99%", but that would be incorrect.
The answer depends not only on the performance of the test, but also on
the base rate — how common the disease is in the population.
If we test 10,000 people, approximately 1 person has the disease.
That person has a 99% chance of testing positive, giving about
0.99 true positives.
Among the 9,999 healthy people, a 1% false-positive rate produces about
99.99 false positives.
Therefore, among all positive results, only a small fraction correspond
to people who actually have the disease:
\[
P(\text{Disease} \mid \text{Positive})
=
\frac{
P(\text{Positive} \mid \text{Disease})P(\text{Disease})
}{
P(\text{Positive})
}
\approx 0.0098
\]
So the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease
is only about 0.98%.
This is a classic illustration of the importance of the
base rate. It also demonstrates why we must distinguish
between:
\[
P(\text{Positive} \mid \text{Disease})
\]
and:
\[
P(\text{Disease} \mid \text{Positive})
\]
These are different probabilities. Bayes' theorem provides the mathematical
connection between them.